Get ready for the elections in 2024 that will shape the geo-economic landscape for years to come.Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!
Nearly half of the world’s population and GDP will be at stake in the elections, adding to the instability in an era of multiple crises.
Janet Henry, chief global economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, says we are living in a “world of global chaos,” a far cry from the relative calm that existed before COVID. “Compared with before the pandemic, growth will be a little lower, inflation will be a little higher and we are not going to go back to a zero interest rate world,” she says.
Elections are being held in some of the world’s youngest democracies, such as Pakistan and Tunisia, and some of Europe’s oldest democracies, which almost certainly includes Britain and the 27-nation European Union. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin is almost certain to be re-elected in March. India is hopeful of Prime Minister Narendra Modi coming back to power. But on other ballots, such as in Austria or the US, the results remain uncertain.
world of elections
Twelve of the 40 leadership races in 2024 to watch in our elections
The results of those votes will shape public policy in every corner of a volatile world. As wars flare up, governments are rearming. Trade routes are being redrawn by geopolitics. Immigrants fleeing in despair are warmly welcomed by the border police. Government debt has increased, leading to scrutiny of public spending. The climate emergency is destroying old economic opportunities and creating new ones.
The good thing is that healthy democracies have the ability to separate good ideas from bad ideas to benefit the majority and the politicians who support them.
The hope is that lawmakers can overcome these challenges by winning over their domestic audiences and moving toward global cooperation.
The downside of the model that has driven world development for decades is that voters empower actors who will escalate diplomatic tensions and further fragment the global economy.
“2024 is a consequential year for political risk and electoral uncertainty,” says Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics, adding that Taiwan’s vote on Saturday is particularly important. “Some, like the US elections, could lead to major changes in domestic and foreign policy. Others, such as Venezuela’s planned vote, could be a catalyst for greater geopolitical friction.
The questions foremost on the minds of candidates and their voters range from who to side with in the struggle for hegemony between the US and China – to pocketbook issues like inflation.
Below is our guide to tracking the key elections and the potential for market or economic decline in each.