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essential viewpoints
- Crude oil surged by 2% on Iraq’s backing for OPEC+.
- Friday’s upturn in oil was powered by short positions coverage.
- Decline in US rig count suggests reduced output.
- Brent and WTI rebounded from low levels.
- Stable natural gas price at $3.130.
- WTI examines crucial $77.31 pivot point.
Quick Overview of Fundamental Expectations
The surge in oil prices by nearly 2% on Friday was driven by Iraq’s support for OPEC+ production cuts and the covering of short positions by traders before the weekend. Despite the upturn, oil experienced a weekly loss of 4%, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.
The surge was partly attributed to traders addressing record short positions and bolstered by confirmation of sustained production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The reduction in the US rig count also indicated a decline in future production.
Both Brent and WTI have marginally recovered from oversold conditions, though concerns regarding demand persist, particularly with subdued Chinese data and decreased orders from its refiners.
Production levels are the focal point for the upcoming OPEC+ discussions, with the next gathering set for November 26.
Forecast for Natural Gas Prices
Chart for Natural Gas (NG)
In today’s technical analysis for natural gas (NG) futures, the commodity is priced at $3.130, which has remained relatively stable over the last 24 hours. The 4-hour chart timeframe presents a comprehensive perspective revealing significant price ranges. The immediate pivot point remains fixed at $3.130, with ascending resistance levels at $3.234, $3.369, and a robust resistance at $3.497. Support levels to monitor are $3.094 followed by $2.994 and $2.901, which could present buying opportunities if tested.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 29, reaching oversold territory, indicating that the asset may be under considerable selling pressure. Should the market perceive the asset as undervalued, it could potentially signal an upcoming reversal. However, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $3.272 is higher than the current price, suggesting potential bearish sentiment in the near term.
The observed technical pattern is a plausible descending channel, implying that if the price fails to breach the upper boundary, a continuation of the downward trend may be witnessed. Nonetheless, a breakout from this pattern could invalidate the bearish outlook and indicate a shift in momentum.
Ultimately, the overall trend for natural gas futures looks bearish, with short-term projections tilting towards a test of lower support levels until a reversal pattern is confirmed, paving the way for a retest of higher resistance levels in the forthcoming sessions. : There may be a test.
Anticipated WTI Crude Oil Prices
Chart for WTI Crude Oil (WTI)
In today’s transactions, WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) portrays a technical picture of cautious optimism. The asset is presently trading at $77.31, displaying minor negative fluctuations within the last 24 hours. The 4-hour chart depicts the reflective market, identifying crucial pivot points.
Immediate resistance is observed at $77.43, followed by the upper range of $79.02 and $81.22, potentially precipitating an upward movement. On the downside, immediate support is noted at $75.35, with added safety nets at $73.97 and $72.61.
Technical indicators offer a mix of sentiments. The RSI stands at 48.15, marginally below the neutral mark of 50, suggesting a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, yet inclined towards a bearish sentiment. the 50-day EMA at $79.02 is higher than the present price, reinforcing the resistance level and indicating a possible bearish trend in the near term.
Chart patterns and recent price action within WTI Crude Oil suggest a trial of the lower boundary of a descending channel, with implications for future price direction contingent on whether it finds support or breaks the lower limit, signifying a continuation of the bearish trend. ,
The overall trend is neutral to bearish, with close attention on whether the asset can summon the strength to challenge the immediate resistance at $77.43. Short-term projections depend on the asset’s interaction with established support levels, which, if breached, could lead to further trials of negative support in the coming days.
Anticipated Brent Crude Oil Prices
Chart for Brent Crude Oil
The latest trading session for Brent crude oil concluded with the asset at $81.61, marking a slight dip from the previous closure. The 4-hour chart timeframe provides a vantage point for significant technical levels. Resistance is set at $81.72, with additional hurdles at $83.47 and $85.28, while support is positioned at $79.28 and a crucial level at $77.58, with a turning point at $76.15.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48.29, slightly below the neutral 50 range, indicating a lack of distinct directional strength and suggesting a balanced market, albeit with a tendency towards bearish sentiment. The 50-day EMA at $83.13 serves as a level of dynamic resistance, and the current price below this moving average could hint at a bearish bias in the near term.
Overall, while the immediate trend for Brent Crude Oil appears bearish, the proximity of significant technical levels implies potential volatility and a trial of the asset’s resilience at crucial resistance points in the forthcoming trading sessions.
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Source: www.fxempire.com
