The August jobs report is due for release on Friday morning and will show that growth in the US labor market remains slow.
The BLS monthly labor report is due for release at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 in August while the unemployment rate would hold steady at 3.5%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In July, the US economy added 187,000 jobs, while unemployment dropped to 3.5%.
Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be watching, according to data from Bloomberg:
nonfarm payrolls: +170,000 vs 187,000 before
Unemployment Rate: 3.5% vs earlier 3.5%
Average Hourly Earnings, Month-to-Month: +0.3% +0.4% ago
Average Hourly Earnings, Year Over Year: +4.3% +4.4% ago
average weekly hours Work done: 34.3
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note, “Big data indicators indicate solid but generally slow job growth, and August payrolls displayed a negative bias in early prints (later reported in the last five years).” Each has been revised higher). Further from the report. “Our forecast also incorporates a 26K outright drag from the combination of the Hollywood worker strike (-18K) and yellow trucking layoffs (-8K).”
Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rebalancing of the labor market as “incomplete”. Powell has repeatedly said that “some softening of labor market conditions” would be needed to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.
“We expect the rebalancing of the labor market will continue,” Powell said in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. “Evidence that labor market tightness is no longer easing may require a monetary policy response.”
Since Powell’s speech, early signs from other economic data have indicated that the US economy may be cooling off after a hotter than expected summer.
New data from the ADP released on Wednesday showed private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, a significant deceleration from the 371,000 jobs added in July. On Tuesday, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed job openings fell below 9 million in July for the first time in more than two years. More than that, a consumer confidence survey showed that Americans are feeling more concerned about the labor market.
All those data points were softer than the expectation of economists polled by Bloomberg and have led to the condition that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its September meeting. The market is pricing in a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will not raise rates at its next meeting, up from a 78% chance on Monday.
Nancy Vanden Houten, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday: “The August jobs report in line with expectations, along with other signs of easing labor market conditions, should allow the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its September 20 policy meeting.” Will give.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell rests outside the Jackson Lake Lodge during the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium near Moran in Grand Teton National Park, Wyo., Friday, Aug. 25, 2023. (AP Photo/Amber Basler)
Josh Schaefer is a reporter with Yahoo Finance.
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